* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 39 41 45 48 54 58 63 67 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 37 39 41 45 48 54 58 63 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 37 36 37 39 44 49 57 65 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 17 15 16 11 7 7 4 2 2 3 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 -1 -2 0 0 6 6 6 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 277 278 290 279 279 284 312 359 329 354 160 206 298 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 126 128 130 132 138 140 143 146 154 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 118 120 122 123 125 132 134 136 138 144 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 50 51 52 50 54 54 56 58 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 47 44 50 59 66 64 54 54 44 50 50 46 37 200 MB DIV 37 21 -10 -21 -15 0 23 -2 36 4 21 21 24 700-850 TADV 5 1 1 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 1 1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1898 2026 2153 2120 2012 1802 1659 1568 1459 1331 1136 967 857 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.1 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.8 20.9 22.2 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.3 37.5 38.8 40.2 42.8 45.2 47.7 50.3 52.8 55.2 57.4 59.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 14 17 16 10 16 22 27 35 37 30 37 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 5. 8. 14. 18. 23. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.7 35.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.44 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.36 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.77 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 265.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.5% 9.0% 7.8% 5.7% 7.8% 15.5% Logistic: 0.8% 5.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.4% 3.8% 2.7% 1.9% 2.8% 6.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/16/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 37 39 41 45 48 54 58 63 67 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 37 39 41 45 48 54 58 63 67 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 37 39 43 46 52 56 61 65 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 34 38 41 47 51 56 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT