* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 29 32 33 34 36 37 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 29 32 33 34 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 19 19 18 19 20 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 22 21 25 28 21 13 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 3 -1 0 -3 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 320 331 334 348 349 322 264 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 148 145 144 141 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 122 122 121 118 116 114 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 46 46 47 54 58 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -73 -63 -68 -78 -24 -4 30 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -18 -7 -27 -21 -8 20 19 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 435 419 402 370 338 268 244 224 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.4 76.6 76.8 77.0 77.3 77.6 77.4 76.9 76.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 39 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.1 76.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.85 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.01 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.62 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 11.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.6% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 29 32 33 34 36 37 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 29 32 33 34 36 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 23 27 30 31 32 34 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 17 21 24 25 26 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT