* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 40 41 45 48 50 54 58 65 68 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 40 41 45 48 50 54 58 65 68 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 38 38 40 43 48 52 58 65 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 8 4 2 1 3 1 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 -2 -2 1 6 5 6 2 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 284 273 276 272 272 294 316 250 199 177 208 111 199 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.6 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 128 129 130 134 139 142 143 148 156 163 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 122 122 124 128 134 135 136 140 146 152 156 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 49 49 46 51 55 58 59 60 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 15 14 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 54 63 72 75 69 58 61 47 50 49 36 27 13 200 MB DIV -2 -20 -17 -20 1 18 -7 31 10 18 17 24 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -5 0 LAND (KM) 2175 2074 1979 1895 1813 1653 1541 1430 1317 1087 875 808 867 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.2 23.8 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.9 40.3 41.6 42.9 45.5 48.3 50.9 53.3 55.8 58.4 60.6 62.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 10 9 16 25 27 34 38 29 40 47 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 37.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.83 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.48 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 285.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 16.4% 11.1% 9.7% 7.9% 9.1% 18.6% Logistic: 1.2% 6.9% 3.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.8% 4.7% 3.5% 2.6% 3.2% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 40 40 41 45 48 50 54 58 65 68 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 40 41 45 48 50 54 58 65 68 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 38 42 45 47 51 55 62 65 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 35 38 40 44 48 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT