* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 40 40 43 46 49 52 56 62 67 70 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 40 40 43 46 49 52 56 62 67 70 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 39 40 41 45 49 54 60 68 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 12 9 4 1 4 3 5 1 0 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 1 7 7 6 4 0 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 262 255 251 255 258 288 315 236 198 267 28 342 257 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 131 134 138 141 144 147 154 161 166 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 125 126 128 132 135 137 140 144 149 151 154 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 47 45 50 53 56 57 59 59 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 73 78 73 70 64 65 52 52 51 37 38 29 19 200 MB DIV -15 -15 -3 14 12 -2 31 7 3 8 29 13 28 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 1 0 -3 0 -5 0 1 LAND (KM) 2004 1905 1802 1706 1617 1523 1457 1306 1101 892 759 740 815 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.9 24.2 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.1 42.4 43.8 45.1 47.6 50.1 52.8 55.5 58.0 60.3 62.3 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 14 12 12 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 11 23 20 27 39 44 27 37 67 53 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 27. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.1 39.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.51 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 57.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 299.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.3% 10.0% 8.7% 7.0% 9.0% 20.4% Logistic: 1.2% 5.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.2% 4.1% 3.1% 2.3% 3.1% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/17/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 40 40 43 46 49 52 56 62 67 70 18HR AGO 40 39 38 39 39 42 45 48 51 55 61 66 69 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 40 43 46 49 53 59 64 67 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 33 36 39 42 46 52 57 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT