* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 42 46 50 55 59 64 69 74 76 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 42 46 50 55 59 64 69 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 42 46 52 58 65 72 80 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 7 4 2 2 3 4 5 2 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 3 5 6 2 -2 -2 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 248 247 252 261 278 310 178 265 270 309 233 280 219 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 132 135 139 142 143 150 158 165 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 124 124 126 129 134 136 136 141 149 152 153 150 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 46 46 50 54 56 57 58 60 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 71 69 68 60 60 63 49 52 44 34 36 29 32 200 MB DIV -18 -7 7 14 0 18 15 -4 8 15 35 14 35 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 1 0 4 LAND (KM) 1944 1844 1748 1674 1608 1544 1397 1255 1027 848 741 735 795 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.2 21.3 22.5 23.7 24.7 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.1 43.5 44.8 46.0 48.7 51.4 53.9 56.4 58.9 61.5 63.5 65.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 18 18 32 26 35 45 26 43 55 61 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 24. 29. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.1 40.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.36 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.78 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 301.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.9% 10.4% 9.0% 7.2% 9.3% 23.6% Logistic: 1.8% 11.8% 5.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.9% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 9.3% 5.3% 3.7% 2.4% 3.4% 9.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/18/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 42 46 50 55 59 64 69 74 76 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 41 45 49 54 58 63 68 73 75 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 38 42 46 51 55 60 65 70 72 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 40 45 49 54 59 64 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT