* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 50 56 62 69 74 78 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 50 56 62 69 74 78 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 48 56 66 78 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 8 4 5 4 4 1 1 2 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 5 3 4 3 2 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 228 224 223 241 233 225 223 249 58 194 64 264 279 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 136 139 141 142 145 153 161 167 172 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 131 134 134 135 137 144 151 154 155 152 149 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 44 43 47 48 49 55 57 59 61 62 62 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 59 55 54 51 44 48 33 33 39 32 27 10 14 200 MB DIV 13 2 -8 7 26 8 4 -4 36 11 23 5 23 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -4 -3 -5 1 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1718 1657 1606 1571 1517 1374 1195 982 797 740 797 883 956 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.2 25.5 26.8 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.6 46.9 48.3 49.7 52.2 54.6 57.1 59.9 62.3 64.3 66.0 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 31 20 27 34 38 29 53 61 61 52 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 27. 34. 39. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 44.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.34 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.61 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 72.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 270.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.6% 10.4% 8.6% 6.9% 9.1% 22.2% Logistic: 1.7% 8.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.0% 1.1% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Consensus: 2.5% 8.6% 4.6% 3.3% 2.3% 3.4% 9.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 50 56 62 69 74 78 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 41 45 49 55 61 68 73 77 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 41 45 51 57 64 69 73 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 34 38 44 50 57 62 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT