* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 28 31 33 37 40 44 39 38 38 38 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 28 31 30 28 27 27 28 28 27 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 26 26 26 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 19 22 21 19 25 26 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -8 -2 -1 -5 -5 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 344 290 256 248 240 225 228 233 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 131 128 123 122 127 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 109 107 103 98 96 102 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 8 5 6 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 57 53 50 49 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -19 8 20 5 -5 -2 -26 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 20 23 32 18 14 9 37 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 4 1 0 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 143 114 66 29 0 -24 -40 -36 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.8 33.3 33.7 34.1 34.5 34.7 34.3 33.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.2 78.2 78.0 77.9 77.8 77.8 78.2 78.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 1 1 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 5 7 6 1 19 18 20 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 833 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 3. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 19. 14. 13. 13. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.2 78.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.85 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.5% 9.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% Logistic: 2.0% 7.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.8% 4.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.1% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 28 31 30 28 27 27 28 28 27 27 26 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 29 27 26 26 27 27 26 26 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 23 21 20 20 21 21 20 20 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT