* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 38 40 44 48 53 59 65 73 80 84 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 38 40 44 48 53 59 65 73 80 84 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 53 63 76 88 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 6 5 6 7 3 1 3 1 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 3 4 4 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 207 207 220 213 205 198 203 302 38 1 96 352 233 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 139 141 142 143 148 156 163 168 171 171 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 134 134 135 136 140 147 152 154 153 151 145 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 43 46 47 48 51 55 58 59 62 63 64 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 12 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 57 47 50 44 41 36 34 24 28 16 16 200 MB DIV 4 -3 6 14 10 1 9 16 29 8 22 13 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -6 -2 0 2 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 1648 1596 1547 1507 1422 1298 1055 870 754 751 816 892 1012 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.9 20.9 22.1 23.4 24.7 25.8 27.1 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 47.0 48.4 49.7 51.0 53.4 56.0 58.4 60.9 63.1 65.1 66.5 67.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 31 20 29 31 51 24 35 64 65 54 52 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 24. 30. 38. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 45.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.70 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.62 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 71.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 269.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.0% 11.5% 9.7% 8.1% 9.6% 22.5% Logistic: 2.7% 14.6% 6.3% 3.1% 0.0% 1.8% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 3.1% 11.1% 6.0% 4.3% 2.7% 3.8% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 38 40 44 48 53 59 65 73 80 84 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 43 47 52 58 64 72 79 83 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 42 47 53 59 67 74 78 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 35 40 46 52 60 67 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT