* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 43 46 53 58 65 71 76 79 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 43 46 53 58 65 71 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 38 42 47 55 66 77 87 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 6 6 8 4 3 2 2 1 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 0 1 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 214 228 243 234 190 203 270 139 62 205 288 237 278 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 142 143 143 145 153 160 167 167 165 164 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 133 135 137 136 138 145 150 153 147 142 139 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 46 46 49 52 54 58 59 61 60 61 60 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 44 46 46 44 39 34 36 26 16 -4 -10 -5 200 MB DIV 0 21 19 11 7 4 12 33 9 38 21 59 31 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 2 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 1558 1517 1440 1360 1290 1111 912 789 778 879 1007 1122 1216 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.3 20.2 21.6 23.2 24.7 26.2 27.5 28.8 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.0 50.3 51.5 52.8 55.3 57.7 60.2 62.5 64.0 64.8 65.1 64.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 12 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 37 35 47 29 29 55 63 54 38 41 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 23. 30. 36. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 47.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.81 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.64 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 54.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 246.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 19.8% 11.9% 10.2% 8.4% 9.6% 21.6% Logistic: 2.1% 13.3% 5.0% 1.8% 0.0% 1.3% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 11.4% 5.7% 4.0% 2.8% 3.6% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 39 43 46 53 58 65 71 76 79 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 42 45 52 57 64 70 75 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 41 48 53 60 66 71 74 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 34 41 46 53 59 64 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT