* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 45 51 56 63 70 76 80 81 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 45 51 56 63 70 76 80 81 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 41 45 51 60 72 83 89 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 7 10 8 2 2 4 5 2 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 212 222 225 201 187 238 342 342 334 282 132 248 313 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 142 142 143 148 156 163 166 165 164 162 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 134 133 135 139 146 151 151 145 138 136 134 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 50 52 54 55 57 58 57 60 57 61 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 48 46 40 37 40 33 22 -6 -8 -16 -4 200 MB DIV 18 26 13 6 11 1 25 15 35 13 58 31 32 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 0 0 0 -1 2 2 5 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 1600 1526 1442 1380 1289 1064 894 829 871 989 1084 1194 1276 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.4 21.5 22.7 24.2 25.8 27.3 28.6 29.6 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.9 51.2 52.4 53.6 56.1 58.5 60.8 62.9 64.5 65.5 65.2 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 9 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 28 35 54 23 37 43 68 37 43 39 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 21. 28. 35. 41. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 48.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.36 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.82 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.63 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 221.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.2% 11.6% 9.9% 7.9% 9.4% 23.3% Logistic: 3.7% 29.2% 17.6% 7.7% 0.0% 8.1% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 16.6% 9.9% 5.9% 2.6% 5.9% 11.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/19/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 41 45 51 56 63 70 76 80 81 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 43 49 54 61 68 74 78 79 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 39 45 50 57 64 70 74 75 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 37 42 49 56 62 66 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT