* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 50 56 63 72 80 89 95 101 101 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 50 56 63 72 80 89 95 101 101 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 52 60 70 83 96 104 106 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 4 4 2 1 0 6 11 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 6 2 7 SHEAR DIR 203 204 186 171 176 199 199 279 320 333 182 213 222 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 143 145 153 159 165 166 165 162 160 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 134 134 136 143 147 150 148 143 136 135 132 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 48 51 52 53 54 57 56 57 58 58 58 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 15 17 20 24 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 54 55 53 50 49 49 44 33 20 4 22 25 21 200 MB DIV 35 28 17 17 0 8 31 13 31 38 78 53 47 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 0 -1 3 3 8 1 2 3 8 6 LAND (KM) 1533 1457 1393 1284 1171 981 872 866 954 1086 1189 1215 1368 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.1 22.3 23.7 25.2 26.8 28.3 29.8 30.8 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.2 52.5 53.7 54.9 57.3 59.6 61.7 63.6 64.8 65.1 64.1 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 8 6 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 35 52 32 32 40 56 43 37 37 32 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 23. 32. 40. 49. 55. 61. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.5 49.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.27 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.86 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.60 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 246.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 22.5% 12.1% 10.5% 8.2% 10.0% 28.7% Logistic: 3.7% 24.8% 15.2% 6.0% 0.0% 8.7% 16.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 17.6% 9.6% 5.5% 2.8% 6.6% 15.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 48 50 56 63 72 80 89 95 101 101 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 47 53 60 69 77 86 92 98 98 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 47 54 63 71 80 86 92 92 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 38 45 54 62 71 77 83 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT