* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132016 09/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 52 55 58 57 54 51 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 52 55 58 57 54 51 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 50 52 52 49 46 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 1 4 8 11 17 24 30 31 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 0 0 4 2 3 -1 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 33 22 25 67 259 289 257 259 240 242 243 252 339 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 137 134 130 124 122 122 123 124 124 123 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 133 128 124 117 114 113 114 113 112 109 109 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 61 59 55 51 50 46 41 34 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 117 106 112 118 126 124 115 94 92 72 43 7 -37 200 MB DIV 41 49 46 59 67 52 38 38 36 21 -2 -39 -35 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 2 2 4 2 1 4 2 4 1 LAND (KM) 1199 1312 1428 1520 1614 1815 2027 2181 2199 2166 2149 2199 2269 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.7 30.8 31.6 32.5 34.3 36.2 37.8 39.7 41.4 43.2 44.2 44.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 11 9 7 6 9 13 9 5 6 6 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 22. 25. 28. 27. 24. 22. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 28.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.67 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 23.5% 12.3% 10.8% 8.6% 10.0% 19.7% Logistic: 6.4% 39.0% 21.9% 10.6% 0.0% 10.9% 13.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 4.6% 22.7% 11.8% 7.1% 2.9% 7.0% 11.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 41 44 52 55 58 57 54 51 50 51 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 40 48 51 54 53 50 47 46 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 34 42 45 48 47 44 41 40 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 34 37 36 33 30 29 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT