* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 38 44 52 61 69 75 82 90 94 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 38 44 52 61 69 75 82 90 94 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 34 37 42 49 58 66 76 87 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 11 9 12 8 10 5 9 15 32 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 0 6 4 9 6 SHEAR DIR 195 183 191 193 171 156 156 133 110 150 192 209 220 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 28.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 148 151 154 161 167 167 166 165 161 149 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 138 141 145 151 152 147 143 142 141 138 122 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 6 700-500 MB RH 52 55 57 57 57 60 60 60 58 55 54 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 15 17 19 21 23 29 36 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 50 41 40 46 30 27 12 -6 35 72 60 200 MB DIV 6 17 16 14 11 39 16 42 37 68 73 62 23 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 2 4 5 1 -2 4 5 10 11 LAND (KM) 1273 1151 1035 936 846 768 785 878 994 1137 1221 1289 1253 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8 23.4 25.0 26.3 27.6 29.0 30.7 32.5 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 55.0 56.2 57.3 58.5 60.7 63.0 64.6 65.3 65.2 64.1 60.8 55.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 13 12 8 7 8 12 22 26 HEAT CONTENT 53 32 23 26 36 60 67 50 42 41 33 19 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 26. 34. 40. 47. 55. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 53.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.32 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.83 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.69 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 188.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.4% 10.5% 8.9% 6.8% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 10.6% 5.1% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 14.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 9.3% 5.3% 3.3% 2.3% 3.9% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 38 44 52 61 69 75 82 90 94 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 37 43 51 60 68 74 81 89 93 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 39 47 56 64 70 77 85 89 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 41 50 58 64 71 79 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT