* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 41 47 57 67 73 79 87 93 85 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 41 47 57 67 73 79 87 93 85 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 42 50 61 70 78 87 90 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 8 11 5 7 6 11 5 16 37 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 -4 -1 0 -3 1 2 6 7 11 SHEAR DIR 184 187 197 180 146 146 121 90 109 194 209 219 221 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.0 27.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 149 154 158 163 168 167 165 165 155 136 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 141 145 148 150 150 145 141 145 141 128 119 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 5 3 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 58 60 60 63 61 60 56 52 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 16 18 20 21 25 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 44 38 42 34 36 22 9 12 39 82 125 200 MB DIV 12 4 1 16 36 22 39 31 71 46 90 92 63 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 4 2 0 0 1 2 -2 26 LAND (KM) 1170 1055 948 869 807 777 819 920 1038 1236 1320 1196 980 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.7 22.4 24.1 25.5 26.7 28.0 29.6 31.9 34.7 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.9 57.1 58.2 59.3 61.5 63.5 64.7 65.2 64.3 62.0 57.5 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 12 10 7 7 12 19 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 39 26 26 35 45 54 63 43 40 35 25 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 7. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 22. 32. 38. 44. 52. 58. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 54.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.87 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 21.3% Logistic: 2.3% 23.0% 14.0% 3.9% 0.0% 8.8% 21.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 14.0% 8.4% 1.3% 0.0% 5.9% 14.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/20/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 41 47 57 67 73 79 87 93 85 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 39 45 55 65 71 77 85 91 83 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 41 51 61 67 73 81 87 79 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 44 54 60 66 74 80 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT