* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 42 51 59 66 72 77 77 68 42 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 42 51 59 66 72 77 77 68 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 38 45 52 58 65 71 73 61 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 6 10 1 4 21 30 53 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 2 0 4 11 15 SHEAR DIR 140 152 137 124 108 80 111 321 263 252 225 217 221 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.6 27.2 26.0 22.1 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 159 160 165 166 165 165 162 149 132 120 95 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 152 151 154 152 145 144 145 137 123 113 89 76 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -51.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 6 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 60 61 61 64 59 54 43 33 37 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 15 16 17 16 16 17 19 19 12 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 32 31 32 7 1 1 3 14 30 68 126 200 MB DIV 27 42 25 18 33 19 67 46 60 40 64 36 44 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 4 3 2 -1 -2 1 -19 -88 -240 -235 LAND (KM) 875 801 759 775 812 925 1077 1312 1334 1266 1052 1037 1395 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.1 26.6 28.2 30.1 32.3 34.8 37.7 41.8 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.3 60.6 61.6 62.6 63.9 64.8 63.4 60.0 55.1 49.1 42.0 34.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 14 13 11 9 9 14 21 26 31 35 36 HEAT CONTENT 33 48 67 55 62 46 35 43 19 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 5. -4. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 21. 29. 36. 42. 47. 47. 38. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.4 58.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 140.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 22.2% 11.9% 9.9% 0.0% 9.5% 21.1% Logistic: 3.2% 34.8% 21.2% 6.6% 0.0% 14.9% 30.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 20.6% 11.4% 5.5% 0.0% 8.2% 17.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 42 51 59 66 72 77 77 68 42 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 39 48 56 63 69 74 74 65 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 43 51 58 64 69 69 60 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 42 49 55 60 60 51 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT