* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 65 73 76 63 41 39 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 65 73 76 63 41 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 44 53 61 65 56 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 9 9 8 7 29 38 57 66 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 14 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 128 138 160 144 157 196 235 222 218 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.8 27.6 26.6 21.4 14.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 168 166 166 161 151 137 129 93 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 152 149 147 141 135 130 126 88 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.3 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 3 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 58 60 59 57 44 34 38 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 21 23 25 27 25 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 28 29 8 -6 7 5 59 95 129 193 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 25 33 27 26 68 74 40 77 77 75 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 1 5 2 0 -3 0 -87 -157 -39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 790 822 874 970 1062 1206 1239 1153 942 1026 1293 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.3 26.1 27.1 28.1 30.5 32.5 34.9 38.4 43.7 50.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.9 62.8 63.8 64.3 64.9 64.4 62.5 58.0 50.7 40.7 28.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 12 17 29 40 50 52 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 61 51 37 31 28 24 12 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 2. -6. -18. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 7. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 35. 43. 46. 33. 11. 9. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.5 61.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.53 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.76 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 25.2% 12.5% 10.4% 7.8% 9.5% 20.2% Logistic: 2.9% 17.8% 8.5% 2.8% 0.0% 4.7% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 9.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% Consensus: 3.5% 17.5% 7.5% 4.5% 2.6% 4.8% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 44 54 65 73 76 63 41 39 36 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 51 62 70 73 60 38 36 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 45 56 64 67 54 32 30 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 46 54 57 44 22 20 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT