* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 52 61 70 70 56 36 34 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 52 61 70 70 56 36 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 50 58 60 48 37 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 10 6 8 3 9 26 36 47 59 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 3 13 14 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 148 160 143 120 120 216 242 215 227 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.3 26.9 24.1 18.5 14.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 166 166 164 160 145 130 107 84 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 148 146 142 142 134 125 103 80 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 -0.3 -0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 60 61 58 53 38 34 37 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 19 21 23 25 26 21 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 7 -8 -9 3 43 51 66 20 153 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 44 21 8 42 64 82 48 75 60 84 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 5 3 1 -1 5 -24 -101 -138 -89 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 794 872 962 1060 1140 1236 1227 1168 953 1264 1151 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 28.9 30.9 33.2 36.0 39.6 44.6 50.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.5 64.2 64.5 64.9 63.8 60.4 54.5 46.5 37.0 26.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 14 23 32 40 45 45 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 55 37 30 32 30 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 4. -3. -13. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 1. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 22. 31. 40. 40. 26. 6. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.0 62.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.79 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.82 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 26.3% 12.5% 10.4% 7.9% 9.8% 21.5% Logistic: 1.9% 13.6% 6.2% 1.6% 0.0% 3.0% 12.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.2% 15.2% 6.7% 4.0% 2.6% 4.3% 11.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 42 52 61 70 70 56 36 34 32 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 49 58 67 67 53 33 31 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 43 52 61 61 47 27 25 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 33 42 51 51 37 17 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT