* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 59 68 77 82 70 44 33 27 21 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 59 68 77 82 70 44 33 27 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 54 58 67 75 78 63 44 33 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 11 9 9 10 18 37 55 69 70 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 3 0 6 13 20 22 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 162 152 139 150 200 233 212 222 225 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.0 27.7 26.8 22.1 16.2 14.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 166 164 162 154 139 130 96 78 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 148 146 143 140 138 131 127 91 75 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.1 -0.7 1.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 7 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 60 57 56 43 33 34 36 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 21 22 26 29 26 16 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 4 -8 -8 3 6 55 84 68 113 156 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 17 21 60 71 74 40 84 57 57 45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 2 0 2 -46 -72 -29 -130 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 909 998 1082 1185 1170 1243 1182 976 953 1457 988 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.4 28.3 29.4 30.4 32.2 34.4 38.0 42.6 47.3 51.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 64.3 64.9 64.9 64.9 63.0 58.4 51.4 42.5 33.4 24.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 17 28 38 41 38 35 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 33 31 32 30 24 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. -3. -13. -27. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 7. -6. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 37. 42. 30. 4. -7. -13. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.4 63.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.44 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.85 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.32 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 39.1% 23.9% 12.1% 9.1% 13.7% 23.7% Logistic: 5.3% 23.1% 12.3% 4.5% 0.0% 4.6% 7.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 14.4% 5.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 5.6% 25.5% 13.9% 5.6% 3.1% 6.2% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 54 59 68 77 82 70 44 33 27 21 18HR AGO 40 39 44 49 54 63 72 77 65 39 28 22 16 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 46 55 64 69 57 31 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 44 53 58 46 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT