* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 30 27 23 20 16 16 16 19 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 30 27 23 20 16 16 16 19 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 29 25 21 19 18 19 21 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 35 40 43 43 29 22 15 9 7 2 21 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -5 -4 0 2 3 0 -4 1 2 9 SHEAR DIR 241 243 240 239 247 261 274 332 5 5 328 200 226 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.4 25.5 22.6 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 116 117 118 120 122 123 123 119 113 96 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 106 106 106 107 108 108 108 105 102 90 78 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 7 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 48 48 45 42 39 37 32 32 36 40 41 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 16 16 14 13 9 7 6 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 10 -2 -17 -49 -84 -128 -108 -84 -85 -93 -118 200 MB DIV 33 9 -25 -22 -15 -9 -27 -22 -9 4 13 40 52 700-850 TADV 23 16 12 13 16 12 12 7 6 -5 -2 -17 1 LAND (KM) 1847 1916 1986 2054 2128 2294 2448 2316 2112 1968 1898 1859 1470 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.7 26.2 28.2 30.4 32.7 35.1 39.4 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.8 35.5 36.2 36.9 37.6 39.2 40.6 41.0 40.6 39.0 36.5 32.5 27.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 12 14 22 31 34 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 2 1 1 5 6 8 8 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -11. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. -24. -24. -21. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 34.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.09 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.34 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 338.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 33 30 27 23 20 16 16 16 19 19 DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 35 32 29 25 22 18 18 18 21 21 DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 30 26 23 19 19 19 22 22 DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 23 20 16 16 16 19 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT