* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 61 70 76 74 59 44 44 38 31 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 61 70 76 74 59 44 44 38 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 70 76 71 52 42 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 12 6 5 12 31 47 53 77 63 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 3 2 6 7 17 15 16 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 160 149 157 191 220 232 218 234 232 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.1 26.7 22.9 17.1 13.9 13.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 164 161 158 143 129 100 80 74 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 143 139 140 135 124 95 77 72 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -49.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 -0.2 1.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 58 59 54 41 36 42 43 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 23 22 24 26 27 23 21 33 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -12 -8 3 0 44 84 92 140 175 222 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 15 48 77 61 76 74 75 68 72 76 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 3 4 -48 -102 -104 -47 -30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 993 1106 1200 1213 1212 1192 1066 879 1266 1294 833 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.4 29.5 30.5 31.4 33.6 37.1 41.2 45.8 50.6 55.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.3 64.6 64.9 64.3 63.8 60.2 53.5 45.2 36.4 28.8 22.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 14 26 35 38 37 32 30 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 29 33 29 26 18 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 1. -6. -16. -29. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 2. -2. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -5. -7. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 25. 31. 29. 14. -1. -1. -7. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.3 64.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.75 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.29 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.79 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.63 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 225.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 33.5% 17.9% 11.8% 8.9% 14.6% 21.4% Logistic: 5.1% 22.5% 12.4% 5.7% 0.0% 4.0% 2.6% Bayesian: 2.6% 5.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 20.5% 10.6% 5.8% 3.0% 6.3% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 58 61 70 76 74 59 44 44 38 31 18HR AGO 45 44 48 53 56 65 71 69 54 39 39 33 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 49 58 64 62 47 32 32 26 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 47 53 51 36 21 21 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT