* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 58 61 69 61 40 47 41 34 27 19 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 58 61 69 61 40 47 41 34 27 19 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 57 62 56 43 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 10 11 9 15 31 55 71 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 6 4 2 17 19 18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 165 176 196 224 224 228 233 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.2 26.8 22.7 16.0 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 160 153 144 130 99 79 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 141 138 135 127 94 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1 -0.3 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 60 53 38 41 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 26 26 26 32 28 18 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 12 9 15 58 92 93 183 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 108 67 78 60 98 72 71 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 6 13 18 7 -20 -93 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1153 1187 1174 1243 1181 1093 855 1348 901 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.2 30.3 31.3 32.4 33.5 36.8 41.5 47.5 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.3 64.8 64.3 62.6 60.9 54.4 45.2 34.8 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 14 18 25 37 45 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 25 30 21 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -8. -21. -28. -35. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 2. -10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 11. -10. -3. -9. -16. -23. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.2 65.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 251.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.5% 10.9% 10.2% 7.6% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 9.4% 4.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.2% 5.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/23/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 58 61 69 61 40 47 41 34 27 19 18HR AGO 50 49 51 55 58 66 58 37 44 38 31 24 16 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 61 53 32 39 33 26 19 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 51 43 22 29 23 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT