* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 67 71 73 58 53 48 43 37 31 25 V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 67 71 73 58 53 48 43 37 31 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 65 68 68 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 12 13 19 24 48 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 5 12 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 196 196 229 226 220 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.0 27.5 25.9 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 153 142 137 122 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 140 133 132 118 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -51.8 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 52 44 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 28 30 33 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 1 16 51 80 111 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 64 93 72 60 85 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 3 12 26 -36 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1143 1173 1205 1146 1110 843 1039 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.9 35.3 39.5 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.3 64.2 63.2 60.6 58.1 49.8 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 20 25 32 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 30 21 12 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 18. 3. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.3 65.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.49 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 319.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 21.9% 12.0% 11.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 9.8% 4.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 10.8% 5.6% 4.8% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/24/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 4( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 63 67 71 73 58 53 48 43 37 31 25 18HR AGO 55 54 59 63 67 69 54 49 44 39 33 27 21 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 59 61 46 41 36 31 25 19 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 51 36 31 26 21 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT