* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 68 70 68 47 40 32 25 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 68 70 68 47 40 32 25 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 66 68 62 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 12 18 25 35 59 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 9 13 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 210 221 237 225 225 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.9 28.2 27.4 26.8 22.2 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 145 136 130 97 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 137 131 127 92 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -51.3 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 6 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 52 45 40 40 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 28 29 30 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -1 48 70 89 109 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 81 83 68 91 81 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 14 24 5 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1163 1245 1170 1138 1078 825 1338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 32.3 33.6 35.3 37.0 41.8 47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.6 62.8 60.9 57.5 54.2 45.3 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 20 27 32 37 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 23 13 8 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -27. -33. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 13. -8. -15. -23. -30. -38. -45. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.0 64.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.28 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.47 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 24.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 322.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.0% 10.7% 10.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 5.6% 2.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 7.7% 4.4% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/24/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 3( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 68 70 68 47 40 32 25 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 59 63 65 63 42 35 27 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 57 55 34 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 45 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT