* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 61 48 40 32 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 61 48 40 32 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 58 55 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 27 32 47 56 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 10 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 233 230 217 226 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.6 22.4 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 139 133 129 97 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 132 126 93 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 46 38 39 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 30 29 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 72 94 125 115 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 61 72 96 65 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 11 2 -7 51 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1193 1136 1102 897 823 1328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.7 36.2 38.8 41.4 47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 58.9 55.7 50.8 45.9 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 31 38 46 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -21. -30. -37. -44. -50. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 6. -7. -15. -23. -32. -40. -48. -56. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.1 62.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.37 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 328.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/24/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 62 61 48 40 32 23 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 58 45 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 52 39 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 31 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT