* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182016 09/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 34 33 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 34 33 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 33 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 19 22 28 32 33 38 35 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 7 6 -2 1 4 2 6 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 242 245 232 243 246 249 263 261 273 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.3 24.1 23.1 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 130 129 125 122 115 102 91 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 39 38 39 38 38 32 33 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 17 16 14 11 8 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 19 13 11 4 14 23 20 -3 -26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 63 47 15 6 3 11 17 -8 -19 -25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 2 7 14 14 14 11 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1185 1149 1113 1066 1020 872 731 630 599 554 557 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 19.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 24.0 24.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.5 119.3 119.1 118.8 118.0 117.5 117.4 117.9 118.6 119.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 12 15 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -19. -27. -33. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -21. -31. -41. -49. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 119.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 EIGHTEEN 09/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.46 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 328.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.44 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.87 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 11.2% 7.0% 4.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.8% 2.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 EIGHTEEN 09/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##