* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 33 31 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 21 24 27 31 32 33 33 34 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 6 5 2 0 0 3 5 2 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 243 227 233 244 246 260 260 272 274 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.6 24.8 24.0 23.2 22.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 124 123 121 118 109 101 93 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 40 39 39 37 39 33 30 30 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 14 11 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 15 19 13 14 25 9 -6 -20 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 30 -3 -8 -6 4 9 -1 -21 -64 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 4 4 9 9 13 13 9 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1159 1112 1066 997 928 763 647 600 603 567 532 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.0 24.0 25.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.4 119.1 118.7 118.2 117.4 117.1 117.4 118.1 118.8 119.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -13. -21. -28. -36. -37. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -21. -29. -39. -46. -54. -55. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 119.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 317.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##