* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192016 09/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 45 44 41 40 33 27 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 45 44 41 40 33 27 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 35 35 34 33 31 28 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 9 9 3 6 10 17 21 30 41 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -9 -7 -5 -4 1 1 1 0 4 5 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 269 271 280 293 27 306 255 260 255 258 250 253 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 143 144 144 143 142 140 134 130 124 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 51 49 45 44 45 45 45 43 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -1 0 8 10 4 -20 -8 -6 -17 -22 -15 6 200 MB DIV 36 40 67 77 71 116 66 38 38 34 3 -7 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1863 1805 1775 1754 1762 1819 1940 2008 2043 2051 2043 1992 1957 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.6 15.8 17.2 18.3 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.0 140.2 140.3 140.1 139.2 137.7 136.6 135.9 135.5 135.4 135.8 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 2 2 3 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 23 23 20 10 10 16 15 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 6. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 15. 14. 11. 10. 3. -3. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 139.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 NINETEEN 09/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 165.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 25.8% 18.6% 12.6% 0.0% 16.6% 16.6% Logistic: 4.0% 20.5% 13.3% 5.4% 2.6% 15.2% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.5% 15.8% 10.7% 6.0% 0.9% 10.6% 11.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 NINETEEN 09/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##