* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192016 09/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 39 35 33 28 23 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 39 35 33 28 23 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 32 30 28 24 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 10 7 6 11 17 21 29 36 41 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -6 -4 -4 -4 1 0 2 4 6 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 283 281 280 276 296 284 281 260 271 265 267 269 279 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 143 143 143 141 138 135 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 48 45 43 43 44 43 48 45 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 9 8 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 7 9 9 17 0 14 13 8 -10 -13 -33 200 MB DIV 36 62 77 76 91 86 45 41 29 15 0 -11 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 6 3 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1798 1778 1758 1766 1775 1797 1815 1793 1739 1653 1521 1373 1214 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 15.5 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 140.2 140.2 140.2 139.9 139.6 139.0 138.5 138.4 138.7 139.4 140.6 142.0 143.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 21 16 12 11 12 15 16 14 6 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 9. 5. 3. -2. -7. -13. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 140.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 NINETEEN 09/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.54 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 177.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.65 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.70 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.69 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 23.1% 16.3% 11.1% 0.0% 14.1% 15.4% Logistic: 1.6% 6.6% 7.9% 2.2% 1.0% 9.9% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.3% 10.2% 8.1% 4.5% 0.3% 8.0% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 NINETEEN 09/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##