* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 34 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 38 34 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 23 26 26 33 37 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 0 1 1 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 237 240 240 245 263 260 273 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.8 24.9 24.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 126 124 120 110 101 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 38 36 36 36 33 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 11 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 -7 -6 -3 9 13 4 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 -6 -8 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 4 3 7 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1085 1024 963 882 801 678 629 618 591 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.6 21.9 22.9 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.6 118.2 117.8 117.5 117.2 117.1 117.6 118.2 118.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 8 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -17. -25. -30. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -26. -36. -48. -56. -60. -62. -63. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 118.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 415.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##