* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192016 09/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 40 40 37 30 25 20 16 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 40 40 37 30 25 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 26 22 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 8 5 6 10 16 20 26 35 39 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 1 4 6 6 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 288 285 297 301 328 267 262 266 261 261 255 273 269 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 144 144 143 141 140 139 136 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 47 45 42 42 43 46 51 51 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 0 -3 -5 6 16 23 9 3 0 0 -6 200 MB DIV 55 72 73 80 91 58 66 48 17 5 7 -3 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 2 4 3 4 1 2 LAND (KM) 1783 1763 1743 1751 1760 1764 1712 1671 1628 1526 1358 1203 1057 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.1 14.1 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.0 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 140.3 140.3 140.0 139.7 139.2 139.3 139.5 139.8 140.7 142.2 143.7 145.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 6 4 3 3 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 21 16 12 12 18 20 18 12 9 11 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 7. 0. -5. -10. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 140.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 NINETEEN 09/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.58 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 184.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.63 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 27.4% 18.6% 11.7% 0.0% 15.4% 16.5% Logistic: 1.0% 9.4% 7.4% 3.9% 2.0% 8.3% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 12.5% 8.7% 5.2% 0.7% 7.9% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 NINETEEN 09/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##