* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 26 27 31 35 40 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 235 234 243 247 257 263 271 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 25.5 24.7 23.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 125 124 117 108 99 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 38 35 34 34 34 30 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 1 -2 2 8 20 22 6 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -20 -9 -5 -3 -2 13 -22 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 4 5 10 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1003 930 857 782 707 617 589 599 595 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.2 19.9 21.2 22.3 23.2 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 117.6 117.1 116.9 116.7 116.9 117.4 118.3 119.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -27. -33. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -28. -38. -50. -60. -64. -66. -67. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 118.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.01 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 372.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.93 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##