* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 43 43 39 35 28 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 43 43 39 35 28 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 37 34 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 4 3 11 15 25 32 37 41 45 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 0 1 0 2 3 3 1 3 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 288 284 305 360 261 279 259 269 263 251 259 277 267 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 144 144 144 142 142 139 136 137 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 48 47 45 43 43 43 47 47 51 50 51 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 0 4 6 -1 10 6 15 -5 1 -3 -5 200 MB DIV 72 70 82 88 82 32 47 9 0 -3 11 2 -1 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 2 0 2 4 4 3 -2 0 3 LAND (KM) 1751 1745 1741 1753 1765 1762 1732 1671 1571 1446 1306 1129 918 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.4 15.2 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 140.4 140.3 140.1 139.8 139.5 139.1 139.1 139.5 140.3 141.4 142.7 144.4 146.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 17 13 11 13 17 20 14 8 10 13 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 8. 8. 4. 0. -7. -14. -20. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 140.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.66 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.61 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 228.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 51.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 30.1% 20.9% 15.5% 12.2% 16.1% 17.1% Logistic: 1.7% 13.9% 12.6% 8.2% 4.2% 7.5% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 15.0% 11.2% 7.9% 5.5% 7.9% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##