* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 28 27 32 35 37 35 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 1 0 1 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 234 237 244 255 257 264 268 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.0 24.2 23.7 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 124 122 120 111 103 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 34 32 34 31 27 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 12 11 8 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 7 7 6 10 20 7 -12 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -14 -7 0 12 1 -12 -36 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 9 8 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 930 855 779 712 648 586 615 640 699 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.9 22.7 23.3 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 117.4 117.0 116.9 116.8 117.1 117.9 119.0 120.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -19. -28. -35. -40. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -15. -21. -30. -41. -51. -60. -64. -66. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.1 117.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 361.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 56.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##