* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 55 55 52 48 41 33 27 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 55 55 52 48 41 33 27 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 56 56 53 47 40 33 27 21 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 5 10 9 17 26 35 39 37 41 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -1 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 -1 -8 SHEAR DIR 283 305 326 286 271 253 271 264 261 260 277 281 280 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 144 144 143 142 142 139 137 139 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 43 44 47 50 50 50 51 54 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -9 -4 -15 -3 -3 9 6 0 -7 -19 -8 200 MB DIV 68 76 87 80 61 52 36 18 12 8 -9 -20 -24 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 1 0 -1 0 2 5 2 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1758 1766 1775 1775 1777 1750 1718 1637 1493 1330 1162 980 803 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.6 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 140.2 140.0 139.7 139.5 139.2 139.1 139.2 139.8 141.0 142.5 144.2 146.0 147.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 5 3 3 6 7 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 13 12 11 14 18 21 10 10 13 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 10. 10. 7. 3. -4. -12. -18. -25. -31. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.2 140.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.56 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.58 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 305.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.80 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 34.7% 23.3% 16.2% 16.2% 22.0% 31.4% Logistic: 7.1% 18.0% 18.1% 11.6% 6.2% 12.1% 9.7% Bayesian: 2.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 8.6% 18.5% 14.1% 9.3% 7.5% 11.4% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##