* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 29 33 32 36 33 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 0 3 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 234 239 253 255 258 260 263 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.8 24.9 24.2 23.8 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 126 124 119 110 103 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 34 35 34 29 26 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 6 6 24 21 9 -7 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -16 -1 11 13 7 -26 -25 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 7 7 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 834 759 685 630 580 556 629 663 684 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.1 22.1 22.7 23.1 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.5 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.9 118.1 119.1 119.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -18. -27. -34. -39. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -29. -39. -49. -58. -62. -64. -64. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.5 116.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 306.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.96 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 42.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##