* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 56 54 52 46 40 32 26 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 56 54 52 46 40 32 26 21 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 55 58 58 57 53 47 39 31 25 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 6 7 6 11 18 27 35 39 35 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 3 3 4 7 5 -1 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 305 311 315 284 266 244 257 247 258 276 271 274 280 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 143 141 138 137 137 140 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 45 44 41 43 43 45 47 49 49 53 51 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -7 -19 -20 -5 4 6 1 0 -4 -6 -17 200 MB DIV 79 87 72 48 44 33 8 1 -9 -5 0 -7 2 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 -2 0 2 3 5 3 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1781 1780 1780 1777 1776 1766 1685 1565 1412 1224 1040 809 568 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.1 16.0 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.8 139.6 139.4 139.2 139.0 138.8 139.3 140.3 141.7 143.5 145.3 147.6 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 11 12 14 20 12 8 10 17 20 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -3. -10. -18. -24. -29. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.5 139.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.52 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 360.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.39 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.21 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 33.2% 23.4% 16.6% 16.4% 24.2% 22.0% Logistic: 5.6% 16.0% 17.0% 10.8% 6.0% 10.4% 4.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 8.1% 17.5% 13.7% 9.2% 7.5% 11.6% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##