* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 57 56 50 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 57 56 50 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 58 57 51 43 35 27 20 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 10 10 19 27 33 42 44 43 46 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 2 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 304 278 272 256 234 248 244 247 267 280 272 271 274 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 144 143 142 139 137 135 137 138 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 42 42 45 45 48 49 53 55 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -14 -23 -19 -7 1 5 4 -5 -14 -11 -2 1 200 MB DIV 76 71 58 48 38 9 7 0 -3 -18 -3 -12 2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 3 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1799 1791 1784 1779 1776 1709 1599 1464 1319 1138 906 703 533 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.9 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 139.3 139.2 139.0 138.9 138.7 139.1 140.0 141.2 142.5 144.2 146.4 148.4 150.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 11 13 14 19 14 7 7 8 16 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -5. -14. -22. -32. -40. -47. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.1 139.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.46 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 422.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 34.1% 23.6% 17.8% 15.5% 20.0% 14.8% Logistic: 2.4% 5.5% 6.9% 5.4% 3.1% 2.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 14.1% 10.5% 7.8% 6.2% 7.5% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##