* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 30 32 34 34 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 3 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 237 244 247 249 250 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.1 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 124 118 113 102 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 34 34 33 32 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 19 10 18 7 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 6 12 7 8 -22 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 9 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 641 585 532 507 489 522 529 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 23.1 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.6 115.6 115.8 116.1 117.1 118.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -18. -28. -36. -41. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -25. -36. -46. -54. -60. -64. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 115.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 307.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 84.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##