* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 65 62 52 42 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 65 62 52 42 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 68 68 65 62 54 46 36 27 20 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 10 13 23 32 37 44 47 47 45 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 2 1 -2 0 0 -2 -5 -10 SHEAR DIR 274 252 236 220 239 257 249 244 271 285 280 295 299 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 143 143 140 138 136 136 138 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 40 40 41 43 44 45 48 46 47 46 47 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -17 -7 -3 -1 -2 -11 -6 -7 -8 -11 -3 200 MB DIV 61 60 55 39 29 -4 0 3 -8 -8 -26 -33 -15 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 3 5 4 1 2 -4 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1796 1796 1798 1771 1745 1672 1593 1456 1260 1051 841 626 404 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.5 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.1 138.9 138.7 138.8 138.9 139.4 140.0 141.2 143.0 145.0 147.1 149.2 151.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 16 20 12 4 6 11 18 29 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -3. -13. -23. -35. -44. -51. -59. -66. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.6 139.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.36 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.41 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 514.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.18 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 46.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 30.2% 22.6% 18.4% 16.4% 16.4% 11.1% Logistic: 2.3% 4.0% 4.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 12.6% 9.3% 7.0% 5.9% 5.8% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##