* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 61 58 47 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 61 58 47 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 66 65 62 59 50 41 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 14 20 31 34 44 53 51 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 4 2 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 245 239 247 250 250 256 259 280 279 280 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 143 142 139 135 134 135 138 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 43 43 45 46 45 46 46 46 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 10 9 9 10 11 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -24 -10 -8 -8 0 0 -6 -7 -8 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 52 34 28 17 -3 -1 3 -18 -15 -43 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 4 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1804 1779 1756 1727 1699 1606 1469 1315 1154 948 710 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.8 138.9 138.9 139.0 139.2 139.9 141.1 142.5 144.0 146.0 148.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 8 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 15 17 13 5 6 6 14 24 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -20. -25. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -7. -18. -27. -41. -51. -59. -66. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.1 138.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.36 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 509.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.18 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.64 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 24.7% 18.4% 15.2% 13.1% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 9.8% 6.9% 5.3% 4.5% 4.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##