* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 68 73 76 77 82 86 89 86 84 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 68 73 76 77 82 86 89 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 63 66 69 70 71 72 76 82 89 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 8 6 15 8 11 4 5 10 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 12 12 10 0 5 0 8 1 2 3 7 SHEAR DIR 209 218 235 257 270 249 270 238 346 45 25 341 339 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 160 158 150 146 145 144 148 152 157 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 165 165 163 159 148 142 137 135 140 144 147 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 10 11 9 10 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 51 55 56 59 65 68 71 71 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 27 28 29 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 57 54 64 73 88 105 117 133 127 119 124 200 MB DIV 86 109 94 96 121 45 73 80 88 98 99 72 66 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 6 4 5 6 5 4 0 2 5 11 LAND (KM) 323 355 385 394 326 233 180 249 300 379 217 67 30 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.9 14.5 15.9 17.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 63.0 64.7 66.1 67.6 69.9 72.0 73.5 74.4 75.1 75.7 76.1 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 15 14 13 11 9 6 4 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 69 81 75 87 41 36 36 43 66 69 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 8. 8. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 32. 36. 39. 36. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.7 61.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 15.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 6.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.61 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 4.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 306.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 6.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 8.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 70.5% 49.6% 35.2% 22.9% 42.3% 44.1% Logistic: 17.7% 58.0% 39.4% 23.0% 0.0% 22.2% 10.4% Bayesian: 12.2% 6.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 5.1% 8.3% Consensus: 16.7% 44.9% 30.3% 19.5% 7.7% 23.2% 20.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 4( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 59 63 68 73 76 77 82 86 89 86 83 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 62 67 70 71 76 80 83 80 77 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 55 60 63 64 69 73 76 73 70 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 50 53 54 59 63 66 63 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT