* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 33 35 35 33 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 7 7 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 234 234 236 238 240 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.6 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 111 106 101 96 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 32 32 31 30 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 16 11 8 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 9 19 9 -5 -10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 10 9 10 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 489 455 430 442 461 503 530 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.5 115.7 116.1 116.5 117.2 117.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -17. -28. -37. -42. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -22. -30. -40. -48. -54. -58. -59. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 115.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 270.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##