* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 39 35 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 35 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 44 39 35 32 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 18 20 25 31 42 48 51 46 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 5 2 4 -2 -1 0 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 241 245 249 251 258 258 272 279 271 268 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 140 135 133 135 138 140 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 41 42 41 43 43 45 44 47 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -12 -4 -7 -2 6 -4 -3 -16 -11 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 36 26 16 8 0 -4 -19 -17 -9 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 4 5 6 0 1 -2 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1787 1756 1725 1675 1625 1511 1367 1221 1046 814 538 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.3 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.7 138.9 139.0 139.4 139.8 140.7 142.0 143.4 145.1 147.4 150.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 8 10 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 13 15 17 16 6 5 7 12 19 29 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -25. -31. -35. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -27. -38. -47. -55. -61. -66. -66. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 138.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.49 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 402.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.33 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 40.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 13.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##