* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 70 75 75 78 82 88 88 88 86 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 67 70 75 75 78 82 88 88 88 75 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 66 67 67 68 70 76 84 93 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 7 12 11 12 7 2 4 1 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 10 5 2 2 5 4 0 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 238 234 261 255 250 265 241 270 53 334 17 303 244 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 160 157 150 145 145 146 148 154 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 162 161 160 156 145 138 136 136 140 146 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 8 9 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 54 56 60 66 70 74 74 75 76 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 24 25 24 27 28 30 28 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 47 58 66 71 93 104 119 125 134 131 146 200 MB DIV 133 119 98 112 103 44 79 87 105 116 89 86 80 700-850 TADV 4 7 9 6 8 4 5 7 4 1 5 10 16 LAND (KM) 355 372 410 398 339 233 169 202 272 312 205 87 -10 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.1 14.4 15.2 16.4 18.1 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 63.8 65.2 66.5 67.8 70.0 71.4 72.6 73.3 74.1 74.8 75.3 75.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 9 6 5 4 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 56 81 84 82 85 46 38 40 52 65 70 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 21.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 6. 7. 9. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. 20. 23. 27. 33. 33. 33. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 62.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 12.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 69.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 6.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.67 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.69 3.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 335.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 7.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 65.1% 44.2% 32.4% 22.0% 38.5% 32.7% Logistic: 13.4% 46.1% 28.2% 14.3% 0.0% 14.1% 8.3% Bayesian: 10.2% 4.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 4.8% 6.0% Consensus: 14.0% 38.5% 24.5% 15.7% 7.4% 19.1% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 9( 9) 10( 18) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 62 67 70 75 75 78 82 88 88 88 75 18HR AGO 55 54 58 63 66 71 71 74 78 84 84 84 71 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 64 64 67 71 77 77 77 64 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 53 53 56 60 66 66 66 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT