* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 33 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 38 33 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 25 29 31 41 47 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 1 2 0 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 247 252 255 256 262 267 280 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 137 134 133 132 134 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 40 39 42 45 45 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 2 2 3 7 -2 -2 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 21 16 10 10 -12 -1 5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 4 5 5 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1752 1720 1689 1644 1600 1500 1383 1204 997 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.8 139.0 139.1 139.5 139.8 140.7 141.8 143.5 145.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 15 15 13 9 5 4 5 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -24. -34. -38. -41. -42. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -22. -30. -38. -47. -54. -56. -59. -58. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 138.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 368.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##