* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 64 67 67 70 71 77 82 80 76 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 64 67 67 70 71 77 82 80 59 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 60 60 60 59 59 59 62 67 73 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 9 13 17 11 13 6 4 5 6 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 9 6 1 1 3 7 2 2 2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 239 259 263 245 250 259 248 273 245 31 287 284 254 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 156 152 146 143 145 147 152 158 163 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 162 158 155 149 140 135 136 138 145 149 152 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 11 10 11 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 55 57 62 68 72 75 76 73 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 24 24 24 26 26 27 30 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 54 64 62 78 92 108 112 122 114 123 133 200 MB DIV 116 87 86 98 63 62 65 104 100 130 92 104 85 700-850 TADV 12 14 12 9 8 6 8 9 7 1 7 22 17 LAND (KM) 355 385 361 301 238 183 154 232 340 266 95 91 -16 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.8 17.4 19.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.4 66.8 68.0 69.2 71.0 72.2 73.2 74.0 74.8 75.4 75.7 75.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 7 5 5 6 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 54 73 73 78 101 53 36 37 43 61 67 74 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 8. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 15. 16. 22. 27. 25. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 64.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 75.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.35 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.87 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.55 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.67 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 322.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 49.5% 29.5% 16.4% 10.2% 25.1% 26.3% Logistic: 2.5% 18.2% 8.5% 1.6% 0.0% 4.4% 4.9% Bayesian: 2.2% 3.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% Consensus: 5.9% 23.7% 13.3% 6.0% 3.4% 9.9% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 61 64 67 67 70 71 77 82 80 59 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 61 64 64 67 68 74 79 77 56 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 56 59 59 62 63 69 74 72 51 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 51 51 54 55 61 66 64 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT