* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 34 34 34 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 233 230 232 236 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 107 103 100 99 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 32 31 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 18 11 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 16 4 -5 -6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 8 10 8 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 390 386 388 415 444 514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.5 115.7 116.1 116.4 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -16. -28. -38. -44. -45. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -17. -25. -35. -44. -50. -55. -56. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.5 115.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 228.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##