* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 63 65 65 65 64 69 79 83 83 79 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 63 65 65 65 64 69 79 83 68 57 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 62 61 59 57 55 56 60 66 60 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 19 15 12 12 6 5 1 5 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 2 3 3 4 7 2 1 1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 254 266 253 247 254 241 253 237 247 315 245 254 265 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 152 148 146 144 144 149 155 162 161 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 160 155 148 143 139 136 135 141 147 152 146 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 56 57 64 69 75 74 74 73 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 22 23 23 22 22 22 24 29 30 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 63 60 61 85 103 114 107 126 106 135 128 200 MB DIV 92 74 82 72 55 84 72 101 109 115 119 102 97 700-850 TADV 14 16 10 5 5 7 5 7 8 2 11 15 18 LAND (KM) 394 363 305 245 224 166 217 312 317 179 104 -26 32 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 14.2 15.2 16.7 18.6 20.1 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.5 66.9 68.3 69.3 70.3 71.7 73.1 74.0 74.4 74.9 75.5 75.8 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 8 7 6 4 7 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 74 75 89 103 79 45 36 40 52 66 84 89 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 2. 7. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 9. 19. 23. 23. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.1 65.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 84.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.54 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.22 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.88 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.48 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.59 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 335.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 35.7% 19.3% 12.5% 0.0% 10.5% 21.1% Logistic: 1.5% 9.6% 4.3% 0.8% 0.0% 1.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% Consensus: 4.7% 15.5% 8.0% 4.4% 0.0% 3.9% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 63 65 65 65 64 69 79 83 68 57 18HR AGO 60 59 60 61 63 63 63 62 67 77 81 66 55 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 59 59 59 58 63 73 77 62 51 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 52 52 51 56 66 70 55 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT