* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 36 35 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 232 236 241 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.6 23.5 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 100 96 95 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 31 29 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 12 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 0 -16 -15 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 8 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 361 383 410 430 444 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.8 116.2 116.7 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -18. -31. -41. -48. -49. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -23. -34. -45. -52. -58. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.2 115.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 38.9 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 236.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##