* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 33 36 43 45 50 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 -1 -2 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 266 265 267 270 277 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 134 134 133 134 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 42 44 46 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 8 10 11 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 5 10 0 -15 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 6 6 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1650 1603 1556 1479 1402 1225 1051 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.5 139.9 140.2 140.9 141.6 143.3 145.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 6 2 6 1 6 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -23. -32. -40. -46. -50. -51. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -25. -34. -42. -48. -52. -55. -56. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 139.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 314.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##